PagSeguro Digital Ltd Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.20 Intrinsic Value $1.81median of 5 methods · middle span $2-$13based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $8.87Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 80% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-80%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.4B Shares Outstanding 316.1M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (operating under the PagBank brand) is successfully transitioning from a pure-play merchant acquirer into a highly integrated digital banking and credit ecosystem in Brazil. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by elevated SELIC interest rates, the company is demonstrating strong operational resilience. Its massive, low-cost deposit base (R$41.6 billion, up 23% YoY) acts as a powerful funding shield, while its credit portfolio is scaling rapidly (up 36% YoY to R$5 billion). Trading at a highly compressed valuation of approximately 6.5x trailing P/E and close to book value, PagSeguro offers a substantial margin of safety. As the Brazilian Central Bank continues its easing cycle, lower funding costs are expected to expand net interest margins and accelerate earnings growth, making the stock highly undervalued relative to its long-term growth prospects. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.27 Mean target$11.53 High · most bullish analyst$13.91 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $7.27 Brazil's inflation remains sticky, forcing the Central Bank to halt SELIC rate cuts or raise them, keeping funding costs elevated. Intense competition in the SMB acquiring space from StoneCo and Mercado Pago compresses take rates. Rapid credit expansion leads to a sharp spike in non-performing loans (NPLs), requiring heavy provisioning that wipes out banking profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.53 Matches the consensus meanPagBank executes on its FY2026 guidance, delivering 9-13% EPS growth, 6-9% gross profit growth, and 25-35% credit portfolio expansion. Funding costs gradually ease as the SELIC rate declines moderately. TPV growth turns positive in Q2 2026 and accelerates in 2H 2026. The company continues to return capital to shareholders, paying out its projected R$1.4 billion in dividends during 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario $13.91 The Brazilian Central Bank aggressively cuts the SELIC rate, significantly lowering PagBank's funding costs and expanding net interest margins. TPV growth accelerates beyond expectations in the second half of 2026, driven by robust SMB activity. The credit portfolio scales safely to R$25 billion by 2029 with low delinquency rates, driving return on average equity (ROAE) well above 20%. Capital returns accelerate via larger dividends and buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |