Orion Energy Systems Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryElectrical Components & Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value $9.54median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $30.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 69% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-69%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $125.6M Enterprise Value $131.2M Shares Outstanding 4.1M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Orion Energy Systems (OESX) is demonstrating a clear path toward operational recovery and profitability, highlighted by its sixth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026. Despite a GAAP net loss miss in the final quarter of fiscal 2026, the company's core LED lighting segment is experiencing robust demand, surging 86% year-over-year to $20.3M. Backed by a strong $30M backlog and strategic entry into the high-growth AI data center market, Orion is well-positioned to meet its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $95M to $97M. Improved gross margins (up 950 bps to 37.0% in Q4 2026) and disciplined cost containment support a bullish outlook as the company transitions from a turnaround story to a sustainable growth platform. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$24.00 Mean target$27.00 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.5015% Implementation delays or cost overruns with the new ERP system disrupt operations, while intense pricing pressure from foreign manufacturers squeezes gross margins. Continued stagnation in the US EV charging market and a failure to convert the backlog into timely revenue cause the company to miss its FY 2027 guidance, delaying its path to GAAP profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $17.7960% Orion successfully executes on its $30M backlog and meets its FY 2027 revenue guidance of $95M-$97M. The core LED lighting business maintains its steady growth trajectory, offsetting near-term softness in EV charging. Gross margins stabilize in the 33%-35% range, and the company achieves consistent positive adjusted EBITDA, gradually narrowing its GAAP net losses. Bull CaseUpside scenario $24.0025% Rapid adoption of Orion's customizable LED lighting solutions in the booming AI data center market, combined with a swift recovery in the EV charging segment, drives revenue well above management's guidance. Operational leverage from the new ERP system and sustained gross margins near 40% accelerate GAAP net profitability, leading to significant multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |