OneMain Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCredit Services Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $44.92median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $55.87Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.4B Enterprise Value $28B Shares Outstanding 116.6M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary OneMain Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: OMF) is the leading consumer finance company specializing in providing responsible access to credit for nonprime consumers. The company's investment thesis is anchored on its resilient omnichannel lending platform, disciplined underwriting capabilities, and robust capital generation. Despite operating in a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by elevated net charge-offs, OneMain continues to deliver strong financial performance, beating Q1 2026 earnings expectations with an adjusted EPS of $1.95. The company's commitment to shareholder returns is demonstrated by its high dividend yield (exceeding 7%) and active share repurchase program, backed by a new $1 billion authorization through 2028. While credit quality remains a key watch item, OneMain's proactive risk management and diversified product offerings (including auto finance and credit cards) position it well to capture market share and generate sustainable, attractive returns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$69.57 High · most bullish analyst$85.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $55.0015% In the bear case, a severe economic downturn or persistent inflationary pressures disproportionately impact nonprime consumers, causing net charge-offs to spike past the 7.9% threshold. Funding costs rise significantly, compressing net interest margins. Slower loan originations and elevated credit provisioning drag down earnings, forcing a re-evaluation of capital allocation priorities and potentially impacting share buyback velocity, driving the stock down to its support level near $55.00. Base CaseCentral scenario $69.5760% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes OneMain successfully executes within its reiterated 2026 guidance, achieving managed receivables growth of 6%-9% and keeping net charge-offs within the projected 7.4%-7.9% range. Stable net interest margins and disciplined expense control support steady capital generation, allowing the company to maintain its quarterly dividend of $1.05 per share and continue opportunistic share buybacks. The price target of $68.30 reflects the consensus analyst estimate, representing a solid double-digit upside from current trading levels. Bull CaseUpside scenario $80.0025% In the bull case, a stabilizing macroeconomic environment leads to a faster-than-expected decline in net charge-offs toward the lower end of the 7.4%-7.9% guidance range. Stronger consumer demand drives managed receivables growth to the upper end of the 6%-9% target. Rapid adoption of newer products, such as BrightWay credit cards and auto finance, accelerates revenue growth and improves operating leverage, driving the stock toward the high analyst target of $80.00. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |