Nu Holdings Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nu Holdings Ltd

NUNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks

Beta (adjusted)0.95

Intrinsic Value $13.51median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2024

Market Price $13.29Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $64.2B

Enterprise Value $56.7B

Shares Outstanding 4.8B diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nu combines rapid customer and monetization growth with unusually strong operating efficiency: Q2 2026 ended with 139 million customers, approximately $17 of monthly ARPAC, a 19.5% efficiency ratio, $1.1 billion of net income, and 33% ROE. Mexico and deeper product adoption provide additional runway, while the principal counterweight is credit risk: the 90-plus-day NPL ratio rose to 6.9% as Nu expanded into higher-risk, higher-return segments. At the August 28 official IR quote of $14.62, the probability-weighted scenario value is $16.88, supporting a Buy recommendation but not a Strong Buy.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets22 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.00

Mean target$18.45

High · most bullish analyst$23.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.0018%

Mature delinquencies rise beyond the Q2 level, risk-adjusted margins retrace toward or below Q1, and international investment produces slower-than-expected monetization.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$18.4554%

Matches the consensus mean

Customer additions moderate as scale rises, but engagement, ARPAC, and Mexico continue improving while credit remains manageable. Risk-adjusted NIM normalizes below its Q2 peak without falling back below the Q1 baseline.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$23.0028%

Customer primacy, cross-selling, and Mexico's full-bank transition sustain high monetization and profitable credit expansion. ARPAC advances from approximately $17, risk-adjusted NIM remains near the Q2 level, and operating leverage offsets international investment. The resulting analytical 12-month price target is $22.00.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Scale and engagement remain powerful: Nu reached 139 million customers, an 83.5% monthly activity rate, and approximately $17 of monthly ARPAC in Q2 2026.
The model is producing substantial operating leverage: Q2 net income reached $1.1 billion, ROE was 33%, and the efficiency ratio remained 19.5% despite international investment.

Key Investment Risks

The 90-plus-day NPL ratio increased 35 basis points sequentially to 6.9%, while management continued intentional expansion into higher-risk, higher-return credit segments.
Geographic concentration and execution remain material: almost 118 million of 139 million customers were in Brazil, while Mexico's full-bank transition must convert scale into durable primacy and profitability.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.