NRG Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryIndependent Power Producers & Energy Traders Beta (adjusted)1.14 Intrinsic Value $88.14median of 6 methods · middle span $61-$102based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $96.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.4B Enterprise Value $41.5B Shares Outstanding 206M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NRG has materially expanded its dispatchable-generation and demand-response platform, brought the 415 MW T.H. Wharton project into commercial operation, and aligned principal terms for a customer-backed 1.2 GW Texas data-center power project. The opportunity is balanced by the non-definitive status of that BYOP project, execution requirements for the remaining Texas Energy Fund projects, and integration risk following the acquisition of 13 GW of generation assets and CPower. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$104.00 Mean target$189.44 High · most bullish analyst$267.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $104.0024% The BYOP proposal fails to convert at the disclosed capacity, one or both remaining Texas Energy Fund projects fall behind schedule or budget, and integration of the acquired generation assets and CPower proves more difficult than expected. Slower VPP scaling or affordability constraints in Texas would further weaken the growth thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $189.4456% Matches the consensus meanT.H. Wharton operates as planned, the other Texas Energy Fund projects continue toward mid-2028 delivery, and NRG advances—but does not yet fully de-risk—the 1.2 GW BYOP proposal. The acquired generation assets and CPower broaden the platform, while integration and project-documentation risks remain material. Bull CaseUpside scenario $267.0020% The 1.2 GW BYOP project reaches definitive documentation and approval, the remaining Texas Energy Fund projects are delivered on time and on budget, and the expanded generation, demand-response, and residential VPP platforms reinforce one another. This would validate NRG's customer-backed approach to serving large-load growth while limiting cost transfer to ordinary customers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |