NorthWestern Energy Group Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Electric Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $49.06median of 6 methods · middle span $44-$58based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $68.53Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.2B Enterprise Value $7.7B Shares Outstanding 61.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) represents a stable, regulated utility operating in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska. The company is currently in a transitional phase anchored by its pending all-stock merger with Black Hills Corporation to form Bright Horizon Energy Corporation. While the merger promises to double the rate base to approximately $11 billion and accelerate long-term EPS growth to 5%-7%, near-term performance is constrained by rising operating expenses, higher interest burdens, and weather-related volumetric volatility. The stock trades near its consensus fair value, offering a competitive dividend yield but limited immediate upside prior to regulatory clearances. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$70.00 Mean target$74.25 High · most bullish analyst$78.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Regulatory delays or severe structural concessions imposed by state commissions in Montana or South Dakota dilute the financial benefits of the merger. Persistent inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and unrecovered operating costs (such as Colstrip Units 3 and 4 incremental expenses) compress margins, while adverse weather continues to depress retail volumes. Base CaseCentral scenario The merger with Black Hills Corporation successfully closes in the second half of 2026, creating a premier regional utility with enhanced scale and financial strength. The combined entity achieves its targeted 5%-7% long-term EPS growth rate, supported by a robust multi-year capital plan and constructive regulatory relationships. Data center demand and industrial load growth in the Upper Midwest offset rising financing costs and capital intensity. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |