Northwest Natural Holding Co Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas Beta (adjusted)0.62 Intrinsic Value $42.87median of 6 methods · middle span $23-$59based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $46.66Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $4.4B Shares Outstanding 42.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) is a fundamentally solid regulated gas and water utility with a strong track record of dividend growth (70 consecutive years). However, the company faces significant capital expenditure requirements ($2.6B to $2.9B through 2030) that strain free cash flow, necessitating debt issuance and equity dilution via its ATM program. At current valuation levels (~16-17x forward P/E), the risk/reward profile is balanced, as the projected 4-6% long-term EPS growth rate is offset by rising financing costs and regulatory lag. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$50.00 Mean target$57.40 High · most bullish analyst$61.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $50.0015% Persistent high interest rates increase financing costs for short-term debt and new senior notes. Heavy capital spending combined with regulatory disallowances or delays in Oregon rate cases strains liquidity, leading to higher-than-expected equity dilution and pressure on dividend coverage. Base CaseCentral scenario $57.4060% Matches the consensus meanNWN successfully executes its $2.6B-$2.9B capital plan, achieving a 6-8% rate base CAGR through 2030. Dilution from ATM share issuances limits EPS CAGR to the lower end of the 4-6% target range. The dividend is maintained with a payout ratio of 55-65%, and valuation multiples remain stable near historical averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario $61.0025% Accelerated regulatory approvals and successful execution of the Mist Gas Storage Expansion (MX3) project ahead of schedule (before 2029) triggers an upgrade in the long-term EPS growth target to 5-7%. Stronger-than-expected customer growth in the Texas SiEnergy platform (projected 15-20% customer CAGR) drives outperformance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |