NiSource Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

NiSource Inc

NINYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas

Beta (adjusted)0.71

Intrinsic Value $41.40median of 5 methods · middle span $27-$43based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $39.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $18.9B

Enterprise Value $35.6B

Shares Outstanding 483.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Next ex-dividend30 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

NiSource offers an unusually strong regulated-utility growth profile, supported by a $28.6 billion 2026-2030 capital plan, reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07 and a 9%-10% adjusted EPS CAGR outlook through 2033. The Amazon and Alphabet arrangements have received key regulatory approvals, while the GenCo structure is expected to provide $1.4 billion of direct customer bill credits over 15 years. Offsetting these merits are execution, construction and financing risks, near-term cost volatility illustrated by weaker second-quarter adjusted EPS, and potential dilution from the $1.5 billion ATM program.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$43.00

Mean target$50.11

High · most bullish analyst$55.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$43.0020%

Project delays, higher construction or financing costs, customer-contract underperformance, regulatory changes or recurring operating pressures cause adjusted EPS to miss guidance and reduce confidence in the 9%-10% growth outlook. Greater use of the ATM program compounds per-share pressure.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$50.1155%

Matches the consensus mean

NiSource delivers within its $2.02-$2.07 2026 adjusted EPS range, maintains its 9%-10% long-term growth outlook and progresses the $28.6 billion capital plan with manageable financing and execution friction.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$55.0025%

NiSource reaches the upper end of 2026 guidance, sustains approximately 10% consolidated adjusted EPS growth, executes its capital program without material cost escalation and converts the approved Amazon and Alphabet arrangements into timely load growth and customer credits. The $50 price target is a researcher scenario judgment rather than company guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management reaffirmed 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07 and a 9%-10% consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR outlook for 2026-2033.
The $28.6 billion 2026-2030 capital plan comprises $21.0 billion of base investments and $7.6 billion of strategic data-center infrastructure investments, supporting a 9%-11% rate-base growth outlook.
The approved large-load strategy is structured so data-center customers fund dedicated infrastructure, with approximately $1.4 billion of direct NIPSCO electric-customer bill credits expected over 15 years.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS declined to $0.16 from $0.22, while results included workplace-continuity and transformation-related costs, illustrating near-term operating variability.
The data-center strategy entails material construction, financing, customer-performance, regulatory and capacity-accreditation risks.
The company may issue up to $1.5 billion of common equity through 2028 under its ATM program, creating potential dilution if capital deployment does not generate adequate per-share returns.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.