New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc ADR Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryEducation & Training Services Beta (adjusted)0.51 Intrinsic Value $64.35median of 6 methods · middle span $57-$264based on filings through 31 May 2025 Market Price $55.63Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.6B Enterprise Value $6.8B Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU) has successfully navigated the regulatory headwinds of the 2021 'Double Reduction' policy by pivoting toward non-academic tutoring, intelligent learning devices, and livestreaming e-commerce (via its 57% stake in East Buy). The company's core education business is experiencing a robust recovery, with Q3 FY2026 revenues growing 19.8% year-over-year. Backed by a massive net cash position of approximately $5.4 billion (representing roughly 75% of its market capitalization) and a committed three-year shareholder return plan of at least $490 million annually, EDU offers a highly attractive risk-reward profile at its current valuation of approximately 10-11x forward P/E. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.50 Mean target$73.30 High · most bullish analyst$90.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $56.5020% The bear case reflects renewed regulatory crackdowns on high school tutoring or non-academic programs in China, coupled with intense competition in the livestreaming e-commerce space that erodes East Buy's profitability. Softer consumer spending in China could also lead to slower enrollment growth and lower average selling prices for learning devices. Base CaseCentral scenario $73.3050% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes steady double-digit revenue growth (13%-14% for full-year FY2026) driven by core test prep and new educational initiatives. Operating margins expand moderately despite minor restructuring costs. The company successfully executes its shareholder return plan, distributing dividends and repurchasing shares, leading to a re-rating toward historical valuation averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario $90.0030% The bull case is driven by faster-than-expected market penetration of intelligent learning systems and non-academic tutoring, combined with a strong margin expansion of over 150 basis points in FY2027. Additionally, East Buy's e-commerce and integrated tourism segments continue to grow at a double-digit compound annual rate, while aggressive share buybacks under the $300 million program significantly boost EPS. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |