NBT Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.66 Intrinsic Value $46.09median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $50.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.6B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 54M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) continues to demonstrate solid fundamental performance, supported by its strategic acquisition of Evans Bancorp, which has expanded its footprint into Western New York. The bank maintains a strong core deposit franchise and peer-leading fee income, particularly from its retirement plan administration business. However, near-term headwinds persist due to elevated funding costs and potential net interest margin compression as deposit competition remains intense. Given its premium valuation relative to regional peers, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market digests the integration of Evans Bancorp and monitors the trajectory of interest rates. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$54.00 Mean target$56.83 High · most bullish analyst$62.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects persistent deposit competition driving up funding costs, higher-than-expected loan charge-offs, and integration difficulties with Evans Bancorp that delay cost-saving targets. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady integration of Evans Bancorp, with modest loan growth in upstate New York and Pennsylvania. Net interest margin is expected to stabilize around 3.70% as deposit repricing pressures ease. Fee-based businesses, including EPIC Retirement Plan Services, will continue to provide a reliable revenue offset. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |