Murphy USA Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Murphy USA Inc

MUSANYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Beta (adjusted)0.51

Intrinsic Value $482.63median of 6 methods · middle span $390-$1,591based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $511.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $9.4B

Enterprise Value $11.4B

Shares Outstanding 18.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Murphy USA entered the second half of 2026 with materially stronger fuel economics, positive total-volume growth, merchandise contribution growth, disciplined underlying store expenses, and a credible organic-development pipeline. Management's latest sensitivity indicates approximately $636 million of 2026 net income and $1.25 billion of Adjusted EBITDA if second-half all-in fuel contribution averages 35 cpg. The principal reservation is that this outlook remains highly sensitive to volatile fuel margins, while non-nicotine same-store sales declined and payment fees increased with fuel prices. At the official intraday price of $513.75 on August 31, 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$550.00

Mean target$622.70

High · most bullish analyst$710.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$550.0020%

Fuel contribution falls below the 35 cpg modeling assumption, merchandise contribution misses $890 million, or construction execution leaves openings below 45. Persistent payment-fee, labor, or maintenance pressure would compound the earnings shortfall.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$622.7055%

Matches the consensus mean

Fuel margins normalize from the exceptionally strong first half but remain near management's 35 cpg second-half assumption; merchandise contribution and store openings finish near the low ends of guidance, while expense discipline offsets some pressure.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$710.0025%

Supportive market volatility keeps second-half all-in fuel contribution at or above 35 cpg, total volumes remain resilient, merchandise contribution reaches guidance, and the store pipeline approaches the 45-55 opening range. The autonomous foodservice pilot adds optionality for traffic and basket growth without a traditional kitchen's labor and infrastructure burden.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-half 2026 Adjusted EBITDA reached $655.2 million, and management modeled approximately $1.25 billion for the year using a 35 cpg second-half all-in fuel-contribution assumption.
Q2 total retail gallons increased 3.9%, merchandise contribution increased 4.0%, and underlying store OPEX excluding payment fees and rent increased only 1.1% per store.
Capital returns remain substantial: the June 2026 dividend was 28.0% above the prior-year payment, and the company retains a subsequent $2.0 billion repurchase authorization through 2030.

Key Investment Risks

The earnings outlook is unusually sensitive to fuel-price volatility and fuel contribution margins; the latest $636 million net-income model explicitly assumes 35 cpg during the second half.
Q2 non-nicotine same-store sales declined 1.4%, while higher fuel prices increased payment fees and contributed materially to higher operating expenses.
Execution risks include delivering 45-55 new stores, controlling construction and operating costs, maintaining the Walmart relationship, and adapting to nicotine regulation and electric-vehicle adoption.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.