Mosaic Co Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $21.55Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $6.9B Enterprise Value $11.3B Shares Outstanding 318.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Mosaic offers recovery optionality if fertilizer demand strengthens and sulfur constraints ease, but the latest operating evidence remains mixed: second-quarter sales volumes were subdued, sulfur availability and affordability constrained phosphate operations, and management reduced phosphate production while preserving the ability to restore rates. The issuer-displayed August 28 closing price of $23.60 sits between its $19.80 and $36.99 52-week endpoints. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$27.26 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $19.0020% The downside case assumes sulfur costs remain above the latest contracted level, phosphate volumes fall below the second-quarter baseline, and weak grower economics or Brazilian credit constraints prolong demand softness. The target uses the issuer-displayed 52-week low rather than an unsupported forecast. Base CaseCentral scenario $27.2660% Matches the consensus meanThe most likely outcome is a gradual rather than immediate recovery. Potash and phosphate demand may improve, but sulfur pressure, weak affordability, reduced phosphate production, and Brazil credit constraints can offset that benefit. Bull CaseUpside scenario $35.0020% A recovery toward the upper end of the recent trading range is plausible if constrained Chinese phosphate exports keep markets balanced-to-tight, North American nutrient replenishment improves demand, and Mosaic restores phosphate production as sulfur availability and affordability normalize. The price target uses the issuer-displayed 52-week high rather than an uncited valuation estimate. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |