Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc

MAANYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Residential

Beta (adjusted)0.82

Intrinsic Value $142.36median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $116.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.8B

Shares Outstanding 116.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MAA offers durable rental-housing exposure, a $6.12 annualized dividend and an improving leasing trajectory, but the recovery is not yet complete. In the second quarter of 2026, blended lease-rate growth improved to 0.7% and occupancy remained 95.3%, while new-lease pricing was still -5.3% and Same Store NOI declined 1.0%. Management retained the $8.53 midpoint of 2026 Core FFO guidance but lowered the Same Store NOI midpoint to -0.9%. Against the August 28, 2026 closing price of $129.61, the balance of income support, improving pricing and continuing near-term supply pressure supports a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$121.00

Mean target$143.80

High · most bullish analyst$160.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$105.0020%

Elevated deliveries, softer employment or greater concessions keep new-lease pricing negative, push occupancy below 95% and drive Same Store NOI beneath guidance. Higher leverage and an elevated Core AFFO payout ratio would reduce flexibility while development and interest costs weigh on per-share growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$143.8055%

Matches the consensus mean

Leasing improves gradually as declining supply pressure is offset by still-negative new-lease pricing. Occupancy remains near 95%, full-year Core FFO finishes around management's $8.53 midpoint and development contributions partly offset weak Same Store NOI.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$155.0025%

New apartment deliveries decelerate faster than expected, demand remains firm, occupancy moves above recent levels, blended pricing accelerates and development lease-ups add meaningfully to earnings. Execution near the high end of 2026 Core FFO guidance and clearer 2027 growth visibility would support a material rerating.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Blended lease-rate growth reached 0.7% in the second quarter of 2026, improving 100 basis points sequentially.
Same Store occupancy remained resilient at 95.3%, while resident turnover was historically low at 39.6%.
Management maintained the $8.53 midpoint of full-year 2026 Core FFO guidance despite near-term Same Store pressure.
MAA declared its 130th consecutive quarterly common dividend and reported a current annual dividend rate of $6.12 per share.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter 2026 Same Store NOI declined 1.0%, and the updated full-year guidance midpoint was -0.9%.
Effective new-lease-rate growth remained negative at -5.3%, indicating that supply pressure had not fully cleared.
Net debt to Adjusted EBITDAre increased to 4.5x from 4.3x at year-end 2025.
The second-quarter dividends-to-Core-AFFO payout ratio was 86.4%, leaving less coverage if operating results weaken or recurring capital expenditures rise.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.