Meta Platforms, Inc. Dossier
|
SectorCommunication Services IndustryInteractive Media and Services Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $731.28median of 6 methods · middle span $703-$1,004based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $725.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8T Enterprise Value $1.9T Shares Outstanding 2.6B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Meta's latest reported quarter showed powerful advertising momentum and exceptional platform scale: revenue grew 28%, Family daily active people reached 3.60 billion, ad impressions rose 14%, and average price per ad increased 12%. The offset is a sharply more capital-intensive profile. Quarterly capital expenditures reached $31.08 billion, free cash flow fell to $0.784 billion, and the operating margin declined to 31%. Risk also increased after Meta announced an approximately $18 billion multistate youth-safety agreement and an expected approximately $10 billion third-quarter legal expense not included in its July expense outlook. These competing factors support a Hold pending evidence that AI spending produces durable incremental returns and that legal costs remain contained. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$580.00 Mean target$754.14 High · most bullish analyst$1,000.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $580.0019% AI infrastructure requirements exceed current guidance without commensurate monetization, driving sustained pressure on operating margin and free cash flow. Reality Labs losses remain substantial, while the youth agreement and other regulatory proceedings lead to additional charges or product restrictions that weaken engagement or advertising economics. Base CaseCentral scenario $754.1458% Matches the consensus meanFamily-of-Apps monetization remains healthy but moderates from the second quarter's 28% consolidated revenue growth. Meta completes most planned 2026 infrastructure spending within its $130-$145 billion range, while depreciation and other AI costs restrain margins and free cash flow. The approximately $10 billion expected third-quarter youth-agreement charge is absorbed without changing the underlying July guidance ranges. Bull CaseUpside scenario $1,000.0023% Advertising demand remains strong, AI continues improving engagement and ad effectiveness, and Meta sustains double-digit growth in both ad volume and pricing. Capital intensity peaks within the stated 2026 range, free-cash-flow conversion recovers, and the youth agreement limits rather than expands the company's legal exposure. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |