McDonald's Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $302.62median of 5 methods · middle span $301-$374based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $231.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $164.1B Enterprise Value $203.8B Shares Outstanding 710.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary McDonald's retains favorable medium-term operating momentum despite a subdued second quarter in its largest market. In Q2 2026, global comparable sales rose 1.3%, U.S. comparable sales rose only 0.8%, and U.S. guest counts declined. Offsetting that weakness, quarterly Systemwide sales reached $37 billion, trailing-twelve-month loyalty sales reached $40 billion, and active loyalty participation approached 220 million users. The investment case therefore depends on gradual U.S. execution improvement while the expanding loyalty ecosystem and international markets sustain growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$250.00 Mean target$316.06 High · most bullish analyst$407.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $250.0022% U.S. comparable sales turn negative, declining guest counts persist, and weakness spreads to additional international markets. Slower loyalty engagement and execution challenges reduce confidence in the expected operating recovery. Base CaseCentral scenario $316.0656% Matches the consensus meanGlobal comparable sales remain positive but moderate, U.S. performance improves gradually from Q2 2026 levels, and loyalty growth continues to support customer frequency. Bull CaseUpside scenario $380.0022% U.S. execution improves materially, guest counts turn positive, international markets maintain positive comparable sales, and loyalty engagement advances toward the company's 2027 objectives. Stronger traffic and continued Systemwide-sales growth support a premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |