Marriott International, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Marriott International, Inc.

MARNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryHotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Beta (adjusted)1.08

Intrinsic Value $406.89median of 5 methods · middle span $283-$421based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $354.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $92.5B

Enterprise Value $92.1B

Shares Outstanding 263.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Marriott entered the second half of 2026 with strong fee and adjusted-earnings momentum, a record approximately 629,000-room pipeline and more than 295 million Bonvoy members. Management raised worldwide RevPAR guidance to 3.0%-3.5%, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase to $5.965-$6.025 billion. The counterweight is uneven geographic demand: second-quarter international RevPAR declined 0.5%, including a 43% Middle East decline, while debt reached $16.9 billion against $0.5 billion of cash.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$280.00

Mean target$381.32

High · most bullish analyst$425.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$280.0018%

Geopolitical disruption persists or spreads beyond the Middle East, international RevPAR weakness offsets U.S. and Canada growth, and construction or owner-financing constraints push net rooms growth below 4.5%. Lower fee growth combined with $16.9 billion of debt and rising interest expense would pressure earnings and capital-return capacity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$381.3258%

Matches the consensus mean

Marriott delivers within its 3.0%-3.5% worldwide RevPAR, low-end 4.5%-5.0% net rooms growth and $5.965-$6.025 billion adjusted EBITDA outlooks. U.S. and Canada strength offsets international volatility, while pipeline conversion and Bonvoy engagement sustain fee growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$425.0024%

Demand remains broad-based, worldwide RevPAR reaches or exceeds the upper end of the 3.0%-3.5% outlook, conversions and record signings sustain net rooms growth, and the 629,000-room pipeline plus Bonvoy and co-branded-card economics support adjusted EBITDA at or above the $6.025 billion upper bound.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter gross fee revenue and adjusted EBITDA each increased 13%, while adjusted diluted EPS increased 20% year over year.
Marriott's development pipeline reached a record approximately 629,000 rooms, nearly 7% above the prior-year quarter, and net rooms grew 4.5%.
Bonvoy exceeded 295 million members, and Marriott executed new long-term U.S. co-branded-card agreements with JPMorgan Chase and American Express.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter international RevPAR declined 0.5%; EMEA declined more than 5% and the Middle East declined 43% amid regional conflict.
Quarter-end debt was $16.9 billion versus $0.5 billion of cash, and net interest expense increased year over year.
Reported second-quarter operating income declined 1% despite higher fee revenue, reflecting items including a $68 million impairment and a $27 million litigation accrual.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.