Lululemon Athletica Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Retail Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $307.80median of 5 methods · middle span $149-$321based on filings through 2 Aug 2026 Market Price $95.86Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 221% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+221%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.6B Enterprise Value $11.4B Shares Outstanding 113M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date11 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The operating outlook is balanced but fragile. International comparable sales remained positive, inventories were controlled on a unit basis, and the store base expanded. These merits are offset by a 6% constant-dollar decline in Americas comparable sales, substantial first-quarter margin compression, a sharp EPS decline, and management's reduction of fiscal 2026 revenue and EPS guidance. With second-quarter results due on September 3, confirmation of North American stabilization and margin control is needed before adopting a more constructive stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$88.00 Mean target$127.92 High · most bullish analyst$280.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $88.0025% Americas comparable sales remain deeply negative, gross margin falls below 52%, and international growth decelerates. Additional markdown, tariff, or product-cost pressure then causes another reduction to fiscal 2026 revenue or EPS guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $127.9255% Matches the consensus meanAmericas demand remains weak but does not deteriorate materially beyond first-quarter levels, while international growth and disciplined inventory management keep fiscal 2026 revenue within management's $11.000 billion-$11.150 billion range. Margin pressure persists, leaving the risk-reward balanced. Bull CaseUpside scenario $280.0020% Product initiatives and improved full-price selling restore Americas comparable sales toward positive territory while international comparable sales remain solidly positive. Better sales quality limits markdown pressure and produces sequential gross-margin improvement. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |