Lloyds Banking Group plc ADR Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $3.10median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $5.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $77.9B Shares Outstanding 14.4B diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Lloyds entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: first-half statutory profit after tax was £3.1 billion, return on tangible equity was 17.1%, net income increased 9% year over year and capital generation reached 108 basis points. Management maintained demanding FY2026 objectives and launched Accelerate 2030, targeting approximately 20% return on tangible equity, a cost-to-income ratio below 45% and capital generation above 225 basis points by 2030. The neutral recommendation balances this momentum and increased distributions against execution risk, credit normalization and motor-finance remediation uncertainty. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.95 Mean target$6.46 High · most bullish analyst$7.02 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $5.9520% Credit costs rise above guidance, the cost-to-income ratio fails to remain below 50%, or motor-finance remediation requires additional provisions. These outcomes would weaken capital generation, constrain shareholder distributions and reduce confidence in the 2030 return targets. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.4657% Matches the consensus meanThe Group delivers its FY2026 objectives of return on tangible equity above 16%, capital generation above 200 basis points, a cost-to-income ratio below 50% and an asset-quality ratio near 25 basis points, followed by gradual delivery of Accelerate 2030. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.0223% Lloyds sustains income growth and disciplined costs, keeps the asset-quality ratio near guidance and converts Accelerate 2030 initiatives into faster efficiency gains. Progress toward approximately 20% return on tangible equity and capital generation above 225 basis points supports continued dividend growth and buybacks. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |