Liberty Media Corp Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryEntertainment Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $59.54median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$82based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $83.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $21B Enterprise Value $24.4B Shares Outstanding 250.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Jul 2023 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Liberty Media offers concentrated exposure to two scarce global motorsport properties. Formula 1 retains strong commercial momentum, including higher season-to-date viewing hours, a Las Vegas extension through 2037 and continuing broadcast and sponsorship renewals. MotoGP adds a second long-duration rights platform and generated 6% first-half 2026 revenue growth and 10% Adjusted OIBDA growth in U.S.-dollar terms. The balanced stance reflects material calendar and geopolitical sensitivity, MotoGP's still-elevated 4.5x leverage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$100.00 Mean target$111.00 High · most bullish analyst$124.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $105.0020% Further geopolitical disruption reduces the Formula 1 calendar below 23 events, weakening event-linked revenue and operating leverage. MotoGP's constant-currency growth stalls while its leverage remains elevated, limiting financial flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $119.6955% Formula 1's remaining 2026 events proceed broadly as scheduled and contractual increases partly offset calendar-related year-over-year volatility. MotoGP grows gradually as Liberty develops sponsorship, media and hospitality opportunities, while leverage declines only incrementally. Bull CaseUpside scenario $135.0025% Formula 1 completes the expected 23-event season without further disruption, viewing and commercial demand remain strong, and contractual fee uplifts support growth. MotoGP converts its new manufacturer, team, broadcast and sponsorship arrangements into accelerating underlying growth while continuing to reduce leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |