LCNB Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.70 Intrinsic Value $16.15median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $18.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $267.9M Enterprise Value $346.8M Shares Outstanding 14.2M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary LCNB Corp. represents a compelling regional banking play characterized by strong net interest margin expansion, robust capital ratios, and a growing wealth management franchise. Despite a recent spike in credit costs driven by isolated logistics-sector loans, the bank's core profitability remains highly resilient. Trading at an attractive valuation relative to book value and offering a stable, high-yielding dividend, LCNB is well-positioned to benefit from its expanded Southwestern Ohio footprint following the integration of recent acquisitions. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.50 Mean target$21.25 High · most bullish analyst$22.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case assumes a broader economic slowdown in Ohio, leading to systemic credit normalization and higher nonperforming assets across commercial portfolios. Net interest margins contract due to intense deposit competition and potential rate cuts, while elevated credit provisions persist, pressuring net income and limiting tangible book value growth. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes stable net interest margins near current levels (3.50% - 3.80%) and a normalization of credit provisions as the isolated logistics-sector issues are resolved. Fiduciary income from Wealth Management is expected to continue its steady upward trajectory, supporting non-interest income. Under these conditions, LCNB should achieve steady earnings growth and support its historical dividend payout. Bull CaseUpside scenario LCNB Corp. presents a strong bull case centered on its robust income generation, disciplined management, and attractive dividend profile. The bank offers a high dividend yield of approximately 4.5% to 5.4% with a sustainable payout ratio (around 51%) and a 7-year track record of dividend growth. Furthermore, the stock trades at a highly reasonable valuation (P/E of ~11.3x and P/B of ~1.01x) compared to the broader financial sector, while analysts project solid near-term EPS growth of 5.8% to 9.1% driven by strategic regional acquisitions and stable net interest margins. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |