Knife River Corp Dossier
|
SectorMaterials IndustryBuilding Materials Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $70.44median of 6 methods · middle span $44-$88based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $50.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 39% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Enterprise Value $4.4B Shares Outstanding 57M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Knife River Corp (NYSE: KNF) is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing public infrastructure cycle, supported by a record contracting backlog of $1.2 billion and a robust vertically integrated business model. The company's Competitive EDGE initiatives are successfully driving margin expansion, while strategic bolt-on acquisitions in high-growth mid-size markets (such as Utah and Montana) expand its aggregate reserves and geographic footprint. Despite seasonal Q1 losses and near-term cost pressures, the long-term outlook remains highly favorable due to sustained federal and state funding under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$73.00 Mean target$96.89 High · most bullish analyst$118.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential headwinds from severe weather disruptions, project delays or cancellations, and persistent input cost inflation (diesel, labor, and liquid asphalt) that compresses contracting margins. Additionally, integration challenges with newly acquired assets or a broader macroeconomic slowdown could limit volume growth and pressure the company's leverage profile. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady execution of the record $1.2 billion backlog, successful integration of recent Mountain segment acquisitions, and realization of the Competitive EDGE margin expansion targets. Public infrastructure spending remains a strong tailwind, offsetting any private commercial or residential construction softness. Revenue is expected to land in the upper half of the guided $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion range for full-year 2026, with Adjusted EBITDA trending toward the upper end of the $520 million to $560 million range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |