KLA Corporation Dossier - Source-backed chat

KLA Corporation

KLACNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductor Materials & Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.32

Intrinsic Value $121.97median of 6 methods · middle span $86-$274based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $206.89Price as of 2 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $270B

Enterprise Value $274.2B

Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

KLA enters fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: FY2026 revenue increased 12%, backlog reached USD 12.57 billion, service revenue grew 16%, and management guided Q1 FY2027 revenue to USD 4.0 billion plus or minus USD 0.2 billion. AI infrastructure, leading-edge foundry/logic, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging are increasing process-control intensity, supporting KLA's core franchise. Recurring-like service revenue and substantial capital returns add resilience. Offsetting these strengths are semiconductor cyclicality, reliance on a concentrated customer base, 29.8% FY2026 China exposure under evolving export controls, limited-source component risks and potential DRAM-related gross-margin pressure. The analysis cannot establish valuation upside and therefore reflects a neutral assessment rather than a more constructive view.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets27 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$165.00

Mean target$231.78

High · most bullish analyst$325.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$165.0020%

Semiconductor capital spending weakens or projects are delayed, backlog is modified or cancelled, export controls constrain China revenue, and tariffs or scarce components pressure gross margin below guidance. Customer concentration amplifies any spending reduction by a major foundry or memory customer.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$231.7855%

Matches the consensus mean

KLA converts backlog at a healthy but normalized pace, delivers near its Q1 FY2027 revenue and gross-margin guidance, and benefits from AI-driven process-control intensity and service growth. Export restrictions and component costs remain manageable but limit upside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$325.0025%

AI and high-performance-computing investment remains elevated, leading-edge foundry/logic and memory projects convert KLA's USD 12.57 billion backlog on schedule, advanced-packaging adoption accelerates, and service revenue continues compounding with the installed base. Revenue and margins meet or exceed Q1 FY2027 guidance while capital returns support per-share value.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

AI infrastructure, 2-nanometer manufacturing, EUV adoption, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging increase process complexity and demand for inspection, metrology and yield-management solutions.
Backlog increased to USD 12.57 billion at June 30, 2026 from USD 7.86 billion one year earlier, while management guided Q1 FY2027 revenue to USD 4.0 billion plus or minus USD 0.2 billion.
Service revenue reached USD 3.126 billion, represented approximately 23% of FY2026 revenue and grew 16%, providing a recurring-like revenue stream tied to the installed base.
KLA returned USD 3.35 billion through dividends and repurchases in FY2026 and had USD 9.74 billion of repurchase authorization remaining at fiscal year-end.

Key Investment Risks

China represented 29.8% of FY2026 revenue, and evolving export controls may delay shipments, require licenses, reduce future sales or cause customer-deposit refunds.
One customer represented approximately 19% of FY2026 revenue, increasing sensitivity to the investment plans and delivery schedules of a limited number of semiconductor manufacturers.
Semiconductor-equipment demand is cyclical; elevated AI-related capital spending may not be sustained, and customers can modify, delay or cancel orders.
Limited-source components, rare-earth restrictions and DRAM shortages may disrupt production or increase procurement costs; KLA expects additional DRAM costs to pressure FY2027 gross margin.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.