Kirby Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMarine Shipping Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $149.41median of 6 methods · middle span $104-$233based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $133.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7B Enterprise Value $8B Shares Outstanding 53M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Aug 1989 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Kirby Corporation (KEX) presents a compelling investment opportunity combining cyclical strength in its core marine transportation business with secular growth in its power generation distribution segment. The marine business is benefiting from a multi-year structural shortage of tank barges, driving double-digit pricing increases in both spot and term contracts. Concurrently, the Distribution & Services segment is capturing significant demand from the AI-driven data center expansion, which has accelerated its power generation backlog. Despite near-term supply chain headwinds from OEM engine delivery delays, Kirby's strong cash generation and active share buyback program provide a solid floor with substantial upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$158.00 Mean target$166.17 High · most bullish analyst$175.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A macroeconomic slowdown reduces chemical plant utilization, causing inland barge utilization to drop below 90%. Severe weather events (e.g., prolonged lock closures or extreme water levels on the Mississippi River) disrupt logistics and increase operating costs. OEM engine delivery delays worsen, pushing power generation revenue conversion into late 2027 and compressing Distribution & Services margins. Base CaseCentral scenario The marine transportation market remains highly constructive with inland barge utilization consistently in the low-90% range and coastal barge utilization in the mid-to-high 90% range. Contract renewals continue to price up double-digits, expanding operating margins. The power generation business continues to execute on its robust backlog, offsetting flat performance in the oil and gas distribution sector. Share repurchases continue at a steady pace of $50M-$100M per quarter. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |