Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustrySoft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages Beta (adjusted)0.60 Intrinsic Value $36.87median of 6 methods · middle span $23-$49based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $41.8B Enterprise Value $65.1B Shares Outstanding 1.4B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Keurig Dr Pepper offers strong U.S. refreshment-beverage momentum and an enlarged global coffee platform, but the investment case is balanced by weak U.S. Coffee trends, elevated post-acquisition leverage and substantial integration and separation execution risk. The company reaffirmed its 2026 outlook after a stronger-than-expected second quarter and reported initial synergy capture and robust free cash flow. A neutral stance is appropriate until deleveraging toward 4.1x and operational readiness for the planned separation become more visible. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$29.00 Mean target$35.88 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $29.0023% U.S. Coffee contraction persists, integration costs or operating complexity impede synergy realization, and cash generation proves insufficient to reach the leverage target. A delayed separation, unfavorable market conditions or leadership and execution disruption would weaken the anticipated value-unlocking catalyst. Base CaseCentral scenario $35.8857% Matches the consensus meanKDP delivers within its reaffirmed 2026 ranges, with refreshment-beverage strength and JDE Peet's contribution offsetting continued pressure in U.S. Coffee. Leverage declines toward approximately 4.1x, while integration and separation preparations advance with manageable delays or costs. Bull CaseUpside scenario $42.0020% U.S. Refreshment Beverages sustains double-digit momentum, JDE Peet's integration produces meaningful synergies, and free cash flow reduces leverage toward the year-end target. Operational readiness is achieved on schedule and the planned separation proceeds in early 2027, allowing investors to value the beverage and global coffee businesses independently. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |