KE Holdings Inc ADR Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Services Beta (adjusted)0.16 Intrinsic Value $17.36median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $16.43Price as of 2 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $18.1B Enterprise Value $17.1B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Apr 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary KE Holdings' second-quarter 2026 results showed a constructive but mixed operating picture. GTV increased 6.3% year over year to RMB933.8 billion and gross margin expanded to 28.6%, but net revenue declined 5.7%, active agents declined 7.5%, and mobile MAU fell to 45.7 million from 48.7 million. The improved margin structure, strong liquidity and ongoing repurchases support downside resilience, while weak reported revenue and contraction in the service network limit confidence in durable top-line growth. Relative to the issuer-reported August 25 ADS close of $18.01, the independently assessed $20 base case offers insufficient upside for a constructive view. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.18 Mean target$22.83 High · most bullish analyst$27.13 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.1823% China housing activity weakens, GTV contracts, the active-agent network declines materially, and cost reductions prove insufficient to protect margins. Prolonged weakness in renovation and rental revenue would undermine the diversification thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $22.8357% Matches the consensus meanGTV remains broadly stable to modestly positive and operating efficiency preserves margins, but revenue growth stays uneven as renovation activity remains soft and rental revenue recognition shifts toward net service fees. Bull CaseUpside scenario $27.1320% Housing transaction activity remains resilient, quarterly GTV sustains positive growth, gross margin remains at or above the mid-20% range, and revenue from renovation and rental services stabilizes. Continued repurchases amplify per-ADS value and support a re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |