J.Jill Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Retail Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $18.52median of 5 methods · middle span $15-$19based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $24.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $362.7M Enterprise Value $358.3M Shares Outstanding 15M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary J.Jill, Inc. continues to demonstrate strong expense discipline and robust gross margins (68.3% in Q1 Fiscal 2026) despite facing a challenging retail environment characterized by soft consumer demand and tariff-driven cost pressures. While the company's bottom-line performance exceeded conservative expectations in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, top-line trends remain under pressure with comparable sales declining by 8.7%. Management's proactive cost controls and stable balance sheet provide operational resilience, but a sustained turnaround is still in its early stages. Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted until clear signs of top-line stabilization and successful customer acquisition initiatives materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$15.50 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.0015% The bear case reflects persistent macroeconomic headwinds, deeper promotional activity across the retail sector, and escalating tariff costs that exceed management's expectations. Under this scenario, comparable sales would decline by high single digits, leading to operating deleverage and causing full-year Adjusted EBITDA to fall below the $70 million threshold, putting pressure on the stock's valuation multiples. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.5060% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes that J.Jill will perform in line with its reiterated full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, with net sales flat to down 2% and comparable sales down 1% to 3%. Gross margin is expected to decline by approximately 50 basis points due to an estimated $14.5 million net tariff impact. Proactive cost management is expected to keep Adjusted EBITDA within the guided range of $70 million to $75 million, supporting stable free cash flow generation of approximately $20 million. Bull CaseUpside scenario $18.0025% The bull case is predicated on a faster-than-expected recovery in consumer discretionary spending, successful execution of the company's product evolution, and accelerated new customer acquisition. If geo-targeted marketing campaigns and omnichannel enhancements drive positive comparable sales growth while maintaining high gross margins, J.Jill could significantly beat its full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $70 million to $75 million. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |