H&R Block Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryPersonal Services Beta (adjusted)0.57 Intrinsic Value $44.07median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$114based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $42.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.2B Enterprise Value $5.7B Shares Outstanding 128.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary H&R Block is a highly cash-generative business with a strong commitment to shareholder returns, characterized by aggressive share buybacks and consistent dividend growth. However, the company faces structural headwinds, including a shrinking core customer base, potential disruption from AI-driven tax preparation tools, and an overreliance on share repurchases to drive EPS growth. The transition to new CEO Curtis Campbell in January 2026 introduces execution risks as the company seeks to balance legacy retail operations with digital innovation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$50.67 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $33.0020% The bear case is driven by accelerating customer volume declines as younger demographics shift to DIY digital solutions or AI-enabled alternatives. If the temporary tailwinds from tax complexity fade and the buyback program slows down, EPS growth will stall. Multiple compression would follow, reflecting 'melting ice cube' dynamics. Base CaseCentral scenario $50.6755% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes low single-digit revenue growth and mid-single-digit EPS growth, heavily supported by ongoing share repurchases. Assisted tax preparation demand remains relatively stable, and the company successfully navigates the leadership transition. Valuation multiples remain compressed due to long-term structural concerns, keeping the stock range-bound. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.0025% The bull case is supported by short-term complexity tailwinds, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which drive demand for assisted tax preparation. Continued aggressive share buybacks and dividend increases support the stock price, while successful monetization of digital initiatives like Spruce and Wave provides incremental growth. Under this scenario, the stock could re-rate toward historical multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |