Horizon Bancorp Inc (IN) Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $19.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $979.7M Enterprise Value $1B Shares Outstanding 53.8M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) has successfully executed a major balance sheet repositioning, significantly improving its net interest margin (NIM) to 4.29% and return on average assets (ROAA) to 1.62% as of Q1 2026. While these profitability metrics place the bank in the top tier of its regional peer group, near-term upside is balanced by a volatile macroeconomic environment, potential deposit cost pressures, and a valuation that closely aligns with its historical and peer multiples. The bank's strong core deposit franchise and disciplined commercial loan engine provide a solid foundation, but a 'Hold' rating is warranted as the market digests the full impact of its restructured balance sheet. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$22.50 Mean target$22.90 High · most bullish analyst$23.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A prolonged high-interest-rate environment intensifies competition for deposits, forcing the bank to offer higher transactional rates and compressing NIM below 4.10%. A broader economic slowdown in Indiana and Michigan leads to rising credit provisions and higher non-performing assets. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank maintains its durable net interest margin between 4.20% and 4.30% throughout 2026, supported by disciplined loan pricing and core deposit gathering. Commercial loan growth continues at a mid-single-digit pace, while credit quality remains excellent with net charge-offs staying below 0.10%. Capital generation remains strong, supporting the steady $0.16 quarterly dividend. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |