HomeTrust Bancshares Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $36.14median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $46.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $762M Enterprise Value $654.5M Shares Outstanding 16.6M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. (HTB) is successfully executing a strategic transition from a legacy thrift-focused model to a high-growth, full-service commercial banking institution across premier Southeast markets. The bank's strong net interest margin (NIM) expansion, robust capital position, and disciplined expense management drive superior profitability metrics, as evidenced by its significant Q1 2026 earnings beat. The ongoing pivot to increase Commercial and Industrial (C&I) lending to 25% of the loan book by late 2026 will further reduce interest rate sensitivity and enhance asset yields, making it an attractive buy for value and growth-oriented investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$51.50 Mean target$54.44 High · most bullish analyst$58.25 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $40.0020% A prolonged high-interest-rate environment forces aggressive deposit repricing, compressing NIM below 4.10%. Simultaneously, a localized downturn in Southeast commercial real estate triggers asset quality deterioration, requiring elevated provisions for credit losses that depress EPS and slow capital return initiatives. Base CaseCentral scenario $47.0050% HomeTrust maintains steady operational execution with NIM stabilizing around 4.25% to 4.35% amid a plateauing interest rate environment. C&I loan concentration steadily climbs toward the 25% target, supporting solid mid-single-digit loan growth. Credit quality remains disciplined with manageable provisions, supporting a stable return on equity (ROE) of 11% to 12%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $52.0030% Accelerated C&I loan growth combined with faster-than-expected stabilization of deposit costs leads to sustained NIM expansion above 4.40%. Strong economic migration to the Southeast continues to fuel commercial and residential real estate demand, driving double-digit tangible book value growth and opportunistic share repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |