Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.94 Intrinsic Value $38.60median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1B Enterprise Value $489.5M Shares Outstanding 30.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Jun 2022 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) presents a compelling buy opportunity driven by its successful geographic diversification away from Florida concentration, significant improvements in underwriting discipline, and substantial cost savings from its newly placed 2026-2027 reinsurance program. Despite a Q1 2026 earnings miss relative to consensus estimates, the company achieved record first-quarter net income and its lowest Q1 net loss ratio since 2015. Trading at a low single-digit trailing P/E multiple and a modest premium to its rapidly growing book value, HRTG is highly undervalued relative to its historical averages and peers. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$39.00 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $31.0020% The bear case is triggered by an extremely active hurricane season with multiple severe landfalls in the Southeast or Northeast, exhausting the company's retention limits and forcing high capital outlays. Additionally, persistent inflationary pressures on construction costs could elevate attritional loss ratios, while a reversal of Florida legal reforms could lead to a resurgence in litigation costs. Base CaseCentral scenario $32.0050% The base case assumes steady execution of the company's selective underwriting strategy, with premium growth turning positive in the second half of 2026. Moderating inflation and Florida legislative reforms will keep the combined ratio stable in the low-to-mid 80s under normal weather conditions. Share repurchases under the authorized program will support EPS, leading to a steady upward rerating. Bull CaseUpside scenario $36.0030% The bull case is predicated on rapid margin expansion as rate increases continue to earn through the book, combined with a benign hurricane season. Substantial reinsurance cost savings of $63.2 million for the 2026-2027 program will flow directly to the bottom line. Successful expansion into Texas surplus lines and other non-Florida territories will accelerate premium growth, driving the stock to rerate toward its historical valuation multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |