HDFC Bank Ltd ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

HDFC Bank Ltd ADR

HDFCBANKNational Stock Exchange of India

SectorFinancials

IndustryDiversified Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value $20.77median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2025

Market Price $22.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $118B

Shares Outstanding 7.7B diluted

Next Earnings Date16 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

HDFC Bank's Q1 FY2026-27 operating indicators support a balanced view: gross advances increased 15.4% year over year and deposits increased 14.7%, while the 19.6% capital adequacy ratio provides a substantial operating buffer. The counterweight is profitability pressure, with net interest margin at 3.26%, alongside gross and net non-performing asset ratios of 1.17% and 0.41%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$30.80

Mean target$33.95

High · most bullish analyst$36.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$30.8018%

Net interest margin falls toward or below 3.10%, funding growth persistently trails credit growth, or gross non-performing assets rise materially above the Q1 FY2026-27 level. These developments would weaken earnings quality and could consume part of the current capital cushion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$33.9558%

Matches the consensus mean

Loan and deposit growth remains healthy, but margin recovery is gradual and modest asset-quality normalization limits operating leverage.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$36.0024%

Double-digit loan and deposit expansion persists, net interest margin recovers from the Q1 FY2026-27 level, and asset quality remains controlled. In that outcome, HDFC Bank can convert its capital position and franchise scale into stronger earnings momentum.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Gross advances grew 15.4% year over year while deposits grew 14.7% in Q1 FY2026-27, indicating balanced double-digit franchise expansion.
The 19.6% capital adequacy ratio, including a 17.4% CET1 ratio, provides capacity to absorb credit normalization and support growth.

Key Investment Risks

Net interest margin on total assets was 3.26% in Q1 FY2026-27, making margin stabilization a central earnings sensitivity.
Gross and net non-performing asset ratios were 1.17% and 0.41%, respectively, requiring continued monitoring for deterioration.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.