Hayward Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryElectrical Equipment & Parts Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $14.00median of 6 methods · middle span $13-$16based on filings through 28 Mar 2026 Market Price $12.24Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.6B Enterprise Value $3.4B Shares Outstanding 222.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) is a leading pure-play pool equipment manufacturer that benefits from a highly resilient, recurring aftermarket business model, which accounts for approximately 85% of its total sales. Despite seasonal headwinds and macroeconomic pressures on new pool construction, Hayward's strong pricing power, operational efficiencies, and expanding connected smart-pool ecosystem (Omni platform) drive robust margin expansion and cash flow generation. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated double-digit top-line growth and significant EPS outperformance, prompting management to raise full-year guidance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$17.93 High · most bullish analyst$19.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $15.00 A prolonged housing market downturn and elevated interest rates severely depress both new pool construction and discretionary upgrades. Intense competition from low-cost rivals pressures margins, while volatile raw material costs (resins, metals) erode gross profitability, leading to a miss on full-year guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $17.93 Matches the consensus meanHayward successfully executes its disciplined pricing strategy and cost-management initiatives, achieving its raised full-year 2026 guidance of approximately 5% net sales growth and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.84 to $0.87. The aftermarket replacement cycle remains stable, offsetting soft new pool construction activity under high interest rates. Bull CaseUpside scenario $19.50 Accelerated adoption of connected smart-pool solutions and energy-efficient variable-speed pumps drives higher average selling prices (ASPs) and market share gains. Favorable weather patterns and a faster-than-expected recovery in residential home improvement spending lead to strong volume growth, pushing full-year net sales and EBITDA margins well above raised guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |