Hawthorn Bancshares Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.64 Intrinsic Value $31.27median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $38.24Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $279.7M Enterprise Value $424M Shares Outstanding 6.9M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. (HWBK) is demonstrating solid operational execution, highlighted by a strong Net Interest Margin (FTE) of 4.07% and robust capital ratios in Q1 2026. The recently announced acquisition of FSC Bancshares, Inc. for $28.3 million represents a significant strategic expansion into northern Missouri, adding $384 million in assets and nine branches. While the transaction is projected to be highly accretive to EPS (~20% on a fully phased-in basis), it introduces near-term integration risks and a 9.8% tangible book value dilution with a 3-year earnback period. Given the current fair valuation and the execution risks associated with the merger, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market awaits the closing and initial integration results in late 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Integration of FSC Bancshares faces operational delays and higher-than-expected conversion costs, delaying EPS accretion. Severe deposit competition forces Hawthorn to raise deposit rates, compressing NIM below 3.75%, while credit quality in commercial real estate portfolios deteriorates, requiring higher provisioning. Base CaseCentral scenario The FSC Bancshares acquisition closes successfully in Q3 2026. Hawthorn successfully integrates the nine new branches, achieving projected cost synergies and realizing the 20% EPS accretion over the next 2-3 years. Net interest margins remain stable above 4.00% due to disciplined loan pricing, offsetting moderate deposit outflows. Bull CaseUpside scenario Hawthorn Bancshares' bull case is driven by strong core banking performance, expanding net interest margins (NIM), and strategic regional expansion. The company reported a 25.9% year-over-year increase in net income to $6.8 million for Q1 2026, with diluted EPS rising 27% to $0.98 and NIM expanding to 4.07%. Additionally, Hawthorn's strategic acquisition of FSC Bancshares, Inc. (announced April 29, 2026, and expected to close in Q3 2026) is projected to be approximately 20% accretive to EPS on a fully phased-in basis, expanding the combined company's total assets to approximately $2.2 billion. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |