Haleon plc ADR Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)0.41 Intrinsic Value $13.56median of 6 methods · middle span $12-$27based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $8.72Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 56% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+56%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $38.3B Shares Outstanding 4.4B diluted Moat Rating Wide Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Haleon's first-half results show strong margin execution and cash generation, but organic revenue growth of 2.6% remained below the 3% lower bound of FY 2026 guidance and the 4%-6% medium-term expectation. Q2 growth accelerated to 3.1%, including a return to 3.1% growth in North America, while adjusted operating profit rose 8.2% at constant currency and net debt/adjusted EBITDA improved to 2.5x. This supports a balanced Hold view: operational execution is improving, but a stronger second half is still required to validate the growth trajectory. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$11.99 High · most bullish analyst$13.77 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0018% Organic growth finishes below 3% because the North American recovery does not persist or category conditions remain weak. Slower volume and mix reduce operating leverage, while leverage rises above 2.5x and limits capital-return flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.9958% Matches the consensus meanOrganic growth finishes within the 3%-5% FY 2026 range, with the second half stronger than the first, while productivity sustains high-single-digit adjusted operating-profit growth. Leverage remains around 2.5x or improves modestly. Bull CaseUpside scenario $13.7724% Organic growth moves toward the upper end of the 3%-5% FY 2026 range as the Q2 acceleration and North American recovery persist. Continued productivity supports positive gross-margin development and profit growth ahead of sales, while cash generation enables further deleveraging and shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |