Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA ADR

GRUPOAVALBolsa de Valores de Colombia

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.73

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $4.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $5.6B

Next Earnings Date18 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Grupo Aval continues to maintain its dominant position as Colombia's largest financial group. However, near-term profitability is heavily pressured by regulatory headwinds, specifically the one-time Colombian equity tax which significantly inflated operating expenses in Q1 2026. While underlying asset quality is improving and NIM is showing signs of recovery, intense competition from digital-first neobanks and regional peers warrants a cautious Hold stance until cost-to-income metrics normalize.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$4.00

Mean target$4.90

High · most bullish analyst$5.50

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes a gradual recovery in the Colombian credit cycle and stabilization of funding costs. NIM is expected to expand slowly, while credit quality continues to improve with lower 90-day PDL formation. Operating expenses are projected to normalize following the absorption of the Q1 2026 equity tax impact.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant market share in Colombia with a diversified portfolio across banking, pensions (Porvenir), and infrastructure (Corficolombiana).
Improving asset quality trends with 90-day past due loans decreasing to 3.13% in Q1 2026.
Strong non-financial sector contribution, particularly from infrastructure and energy concessions.

Key Investment Risks

Heavy regulatory and fiscal burden in Colombia, including high corporate tax rates and banking surcharges.
Intense competition from major incumbents like Bancolombia and Davivienda, as well as rapid expansion of digital neobanks.
Macroeconomic sensitivity to Colombian inflation and interest rate cycles.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.