Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV ADR

AERONYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAirlines

Beta (adjusted)1.89

Intrinsic Value $28.76median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $14.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 93% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+93%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $2.2B

Enterprise Value $5.1B

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Grupo Aeromexico is uniquely positioned as Mexico's sole full-service carrier, leveraging a highly profitable premium revenue mix (41.9% of passenger revenue) and a dominant international network. Following its successful NYSE re-listing in November 2025, the company has demonstrated robust top-line growth (+13.3% YoY in Q1 2026) and industry-leading operational excellence, consistently ranking as the world's most on-time airline. While near-term profitability is pressured by elevated fuel costs and domestic demand disruptions, its aggressive fleet modernization (transitioning to fuel-efficient Boeing 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliners) and structured fuel recapture strategies position it for significant margin expansion in the second half of 2026. Trading at a low earnings multiple relative to its long-term growth potential, Aeromexico offers a compelling risk-reward profile with substantial valuation upside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$20.00

Mean target$27.16

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$20.0015%

Fuel prices remain elevated through 2026, and pricing initiatives fail to recapture incremental costs, keeping operating margins compressed in the single digits (4% to 6%). The U.S. DOT successfully unwinds the Delta Joint Venture, severely disrupting transborder traffic and reducing premium passenger volumes. Domestic demand weakness worsens, and capacity constraints limit international fleet additions, capping annual revenue growth below 5%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$27.1660%

Matches the consensus mean

Aeromexico achieves its guided Q2 2026 revenue of $1.47B to $1.52B and gradually recovers fuel costs (50% in Q2, 70% in Q3, 100% in Q4). The Delta JV remains protected under the court's stay, maintaining stable transborder operations. Fleet modernization continues as planned, keeping capacity growth at 2% to 3% for the full year. Operating margins normalize to 11-12% by year-end, supported by a steady 42% premium revenue mix.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$30.0025%

Aeromexico successfully executes its fuel recapture strategy ahead of schedule, achieving 100% recapture by Q3 2026. The U.S. DOT permanently preserves the Delta-Aeromexico Joint Venture, unlocking seamless transborder expansion. Rapid deployment of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft drives fuel burn per ASM down by over 2%, leading to significant operating margin expansion toward 15%. Strong international demand in Europe and Asia outpaces capacity, driving load factors above 88%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Only full-service carrier in Mexico with a dominant position in high-yield international and long-haul wide-body markets.
Strong premium revenue mix (42% of passenger-related revenue) driving superior yields and customer loyalty.
Industry-leading operational excellence, recognized as the world's most on-time airline for 2024, 2025, and Q1 2026.
Modern, fuel-efficient fleet (166 aircraft as of March 2026) with growing share of next-generation Boeing 737 MAX and 787 jets.
Robust liquidity position of $1.2 billion (23% of LTM revenue) and manageable leverage of 1.7x net debt to EBITDAR.

Key Investment Risks

Exposure to volatile jet fuel prices, which can compress operating margins if recapture strategies lag.
Regulatory risks, specifically the potential unwinding of the strategic Delta Air Lines Joint Venture by the U.S. DOT.
Intense domestic competition from low-cost carriers (Volaris, Viva Aerobus) limiting domestic yield growth.
Macroeconomic sensitivity, including fluctuations in the Mexican Peso (MXN) and regional economic slowdowns.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A final, unappealable regulatory order to dissolve the Delta-Aeromexico Joint Venture.
Operating margins falling below 4% for two consecutive quarters due to failed fuel cost pass-throughs.
A severe drop in international load factors below 80% indicating a structural decline in long-haul demand.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.