Good Times Restaurants Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Good Times Restaurants Inc

GTIMNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryRestaurants

Beta (adjusted)0.71

Intrinsic Value $2.52median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $1.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 68% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+68%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $15.8M

Enterprise Value $12.6M

Shares Outstanding 10.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date22 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) operates two distinct restaurant concepts: Bad Daddy's Burger Bar (full-service) and Good Times Burgers & Frozen Custard (quick-service). The company has successfully returned to profitability in the first half of fiscal 2026, driven by disciplined cost management, G&A reductions, and debt paydown. However, persistent top-line headwinds, including negative same-store sales and declining total revenues, reflect intense competition and consumer spending pressures. While the stock trades at a deep discount to book value (P/B of ~0.4x), a 'Hold' rating is warranted until the company demonstrates sustained positive traffic and same-store sales growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$0.9015%

The bear case is triggered by accelerating traffic declines due to a weakening consumer environment, combined with sharp commodity inflation (particularly in ground beef prices) that compresses restaurant-level operating margins. Inability to pass costs through via menu pricing leads to a return to net losses and halts the share buyback program.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1.4060%

The base case assumes that same-store sales remain slightly negative to flat, but profitability is sustained through tight G&A expense control (targeted at 6% to 7% of revenues) and stable restaurant-level operating margins. The company continues to generate modest positive net income and Adjusted EBITDA, using free cash flow to maintain a clean balance sheet with minimal long-term debt.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$2.0025%

The bull case is built on successful menu innovation (such as the 'Monthly Drops' LTO strategy at Bad Daddy's and the return of requested items like cheese curds at Good Times) driving a sequential recovery in customer traffic. Additionally, further debt reduction and the expansion of the share repurchase program (authorized up to $7.0 million) could significantly enhance shareholder value, unlocking the stock's deep discount relative to its book value.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Return to profitability with positive net income in Q1 and Q2 of fiscal 2026.
Strong balance sheet with long-term debt reduced to $1.0 million and cash of $2.7 million as of March 31, 2026.
Deep value valuation, trading at a price-to-book ratio of approximately 0.4x.
Active capital allocation through an expanded $7.0 million share repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

Negative same-store sales trends across both restaurant concepts.
High geographic concentration, with a significant portion of restaurants located in Colorado, exposing the company to regional labor cost pressures.
Commodity cost volatility, particularly expected increases in ground beef prices in the second half of fiscal 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A return to quarterly net losses or negative Adjusted EBITDA.
Same-store sales declines accelerating beyond -5%.
A material increase in long-term debt to fund operations rather than organic cash generation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.