Geo Group Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySecurity & Protection Services Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value $17.65median of 6 methods · middle span $13-$30based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.1B Enterprise Value $5.5B Shares Outstanding 132M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Jan 2021 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary GEO Group is experiencing a robust operational turnaround driven by the activation of high-margin, idle secure facilities and significant contract wins with federal agencies (ICE and USMS). The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated substantial operational leverage, with net income nearly doubling year-over-year. Despite political and regulatory uncertainties surrounding private detention, GEO's aggressive debt reduction, active share repurchases, and essential service nature position it for strong earnings growth and valuation re-rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.00 Mean target$37.75 High · most bullish analyst$40.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $31.00 Prolonged federal policy shifts or budgetary constraints lead to contract cancellations or lower utilization rates. Margin compression occurs due to persistent labor inflation and slower-than-expected ramp-up at newly activated facilities, keeping the stock range-bound. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.75 Matches the consensus meanGEO successfully executes on its raised FY2026 guidance (revenues of $2.95B–$3.10B and Adjusted EBITDA of $525M–$545M). Stable occupancy levels of ~91% and steady secure transportation growth offset minor pricing pressures in electronic monitoring, supporting a moderate upward re-rating in line with consensus estimates. Bull CaseUpside scenario $40.00 Rapid reactivation of remaining idle beds, higher-than-expected ICE detention spending, and successful scaling of the ISAP V electronic monitoring and skip tracing contracts drive annualized revenues past $3.1 billion. Accelerated deleveraging allows for the reinstatement of shareholder dividends, driving the stock to the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |