Full House Resorts Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResorts & Casinos Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $52M Enterprise Value $488.3M Shares Outstanding 36.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Full House Resorts (FLL) is transitioning from a capital-intensive construction phase to an operational cash-generation phase, driven by the ramp-up of Chamonix in Colorado and the strong performance of the temporary American Place casino in Illinois. However, the company remains highly leveraged with $531.88 million in total debt and a stretched balance sheet, resulting in a trailing net loss. While the long-term potential of the permanent American Place casino (estimated at $100 million in annual EBITDA) is substantial, near-term execution risks, high interest expenses, and intense regional competition in Chicagoland warrant a cautious Hold stance until permanent financing is fully executed and leverage begins to decline. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.50 Mean target$3.25 High · most bullish analyst$4.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.5020% Delays in securing permanent casino financing or higher-than-expected interest rates, coupled with increased competitive pressure in the Chicagoland gaming market. Slower visitor ramp-up at Chamonix fails to offset high fixed costs, leading to continued net losses and liquidity strain. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.2550% Matches the consensus meanChamonix continues its gradual operational improvement while the temporary American Place casino maintains steady performance. Financing for the permanent facility is secured at guided interest rates of around 10%, keeping construction on track for a 2027 opening while near-term earnings remain pressured by interest expenses. Bull CaseUpside scenario $4.0030% Successful and rapid ramp-up of Chamonix Casino Hotel combined with securing favorable financing terms for the permanent American Place casino. This drives significant EBITDA growth, allowing the company to deleverage ahead of schedule and achieve positive free cash flow. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |