Franco-Nevada Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $406.82median of 4 methods · middle span $198-$616based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $235.79Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 73% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+73%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $45.5B Shares Outstanding 192.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The operating outlook is constructive: first-half 2026 GEO sales rose to 268,758, management expects full-year results in the upper half of its 510,000-570,000 GEO range, and available capital reached US$4.3 billion. The portfolio also retains material optionality from Cobre Panamá and multiple mine expansions. A Hold is appropriate because full production at Cobre Panamá remains suspended, delivery timing depends heavily on third-party operators. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$238.00 Mean target$280.35 High · most bullish analyst$327.18 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $238.0020% Second-half production at key third-party-operated assets underperforms, FY2026 GEO sales fall below guidance, Cobre Panamá stockpile processing or deliveries disappoint, and legal uncertainty affecting the Karma stream demonstrates heightened contract-enforcement risk. Base CaseCentral scenario $280.3555% Matches the consensus meanFranco-Nevada finishes 2026 in the upper half of its 510,000-570,000 GEO guidance range, receives a portion of the expected Cobre Panamá stockpile-related deliveries, and continues progressing toward its 555,000-615,000 GEO 2030 outlook without assuming a full Cobre Panamá restart. Bull CaseUpside scenario $327.1825% Portfolio production reaches or exceeds the upper portion of 2026 guidance, Cobre Panamá stockpile deliveries arrive as expected, operating improvements at Candelaria, Côté Gold, Tocantinzinho, Greenstone and Valentine strengthen second-half output, and available capital supports additional accretive royalties or streams. A broader Cobre Panamá resolution would provide upside beyond management's published 2030 outlook. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |