Flywire Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.18 Intrinsic Value $19.14median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $17.56Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.1B Enterprise Value $1.9B Shares Outstanding 133.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Flywire Corp is demonstrating robust operational leverage and rapid scale, transitioning from a net loss to strong GAAP profitability. The company's Q1 2026 results highlighted a 41% YoY revenue increase to $188.1 million and a significant expansion of its Adjusted EBITDA margin to 21.4%. Driven by its land-and-expand strategy, deep vertical integration (education, travel, healthcare, and B2B), and successful inorganic contributions from the Sertifi acquisition, Flywire is structurally lowering its cost of scale. Early AI adoption is already driving meaningful cost reductions, such as a 40% auto-resolution rate for customer inquiries. With upgraded full-year 2026 guidance and a disciplined capital return program, Flywire presents an attractive risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$20.54 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.00 Stricter international student visa regulations in major markets severely impact the core education segment. Low-margin payment processing ramps persist longer than expected, permanently depressing gross margins, while integration challenges or macroeconomic slowdowns in the travel sector limit upside. Base CaseCentral scenario $20.54 Matches the consensus meanFlywire delivers on its upgraded FY 2026 guidance of 18% to 24% FX-neutral revenue growth and achieves Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 175 to 375 basis points (reaching ~22.8% at the midpoint). Steady growth in international education payments outside the traditional big four markets offsets localized visa headwinds. Bull CaseUpside scenario $24.00 Accelerated expansion in the travel and B2B verticals, combined with faster-than-expected realization of synergies from the Sertifi and Invoiced acquisitions, drives revenue growth to the high end of guidance. Continued operational efficiencies from enterprise-wide digital transformation and AI adoption expand Adjusted EBITDA margins beyond 24%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |