Five Star Bancorp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value $39.41median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $42.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $442.1M Shares Outstanding 21.3M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Five Star Bancorp (NASDAQ: FSBC) continues to demonstrate exceptional operational efficiency and robust organic growth, driven by its strategic expansion into high-opportunity California markets (including Southern California) and strong relationship-based deposit gathering. With a highly competitive net interest margin of 3.70% and an industry-leading efficiency ratio of 38.57% as of Q1 2026, the bank is well-positioned to outperform regional peers. The bank's conservative underwriting is reflected in its low non-performing loans (0.07% of total loans), making it an attractive growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) opportunity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$50.00 Mean target$52.00 High · most bullish analyst$55.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $50.0015% Severe economic downturn in California leading to rising credit defaults, forcing a significant increase in provisions for credit losses, while intense deposit competition compresses the net interest margin below 3.40%. Base CaseCentral scenario $52.0055% Matches the consensus meanSteady execution of the Northern and Southern California expansion strategy, maintaining a net interest margin around 3.65%-3.75%, an efficiency ratio below 40%, and mid-teens ROAE, supported by strong local business relationships. Bull CaseUpside scenario $55.0030% Accelerated market share capture in Southern California and continued double-digit organic loan growth, combined with stable funding costs, drives net interest margin expansion above 3.85% and ROAE above 18%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |