First Mid Bancshares Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

First Mid Bancshares Inc

FMBHNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.86

Intrinsic Value $42.08median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $49.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.3B

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 25.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) represents a highly resilient, community-focused financial holding company with a diversified business model that sets it apart from traditional regional banks. By combining community banking with robust wealth management and insurance operations, First Mid generates a high proportion of non-interest income (~30%), which provides a strong buffer against interest rate volatility. The bank's recent integration of Blackhawk Bancorp and Two Rivers Financial Group has successfully expanded its footprint across the Midwest, driving total assets to $9.3 billion. Trading at an attractive valuation multiple relative to peers and historical averages, and supported by a disciplined credit culture (20-year average net charge-off rate of 0.14%), First Mid is well-positioned to deliver sustainable long-term shareholder value.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$54.00

Mean target$56.50

High · most bullish analyst$62.50

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$54.00

A prolonged high interest rate environment leads to increased competition for deposits, driving up funding costs and compressing net interest margins. Simultaneously, economic downturns in the agricultural or commercial real estate sectors trigger higher loan loss provisions and asset quality deterioration, limiting earnings growth and depressing the stock price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$56.50

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the 'Elevate 2027' strategic plan, maintaining mid-single-digit organic growth and successful integration of recent acquisitions. Non-interest income continues to contribute approximately 26-30% of total revenue, and net interest margin remains stable near 3.70-3.80%. Diluted EPS grows in line with consensus estimates, supporting a moderate valuation re-rating.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$62.50

Accelerated organic loan and deposit growth in newly expanded metropolitan corridors (such as St. Louis and southern Wisconsin) combined with rapid cross-selling of wealth management and insurance products. Net interest margin expands beyond expectations due to disciplined deposit pricing, while credit quality remains pristine, leading to significant earnings beats and multiple expansion toward a bull-case target.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Diversified revenue stream with historically ~30% of revenue derived from non-interest income, driven by owning Illinois' largest community bank insurance agency and managing $7.8B in wealth management assets.
Strong credit culture and conservative risk profile, demonstrated by a 20-year average net charge-off rate of just 0.14%.
Proven track record of disciplined M&A and successful integration, as shown by the seamless expansion of Blackhawk Bancorp and Two Rivers Financial Group.
Attractive valuation trading at approximately 12.4x trailing P/E, which is in line with or below the peer average.

Key Investment Risks

Exposure to agricultural and commercial real estate loans, which could introduce credit risk during regional economic downturns.
Funding cost pressures if intense competition for retail deposits forces the bank to raise deposit yields, compressing net interest margins.
Execution risk associated with the leadership transition as Matthew K. Smith takes over as CEO on July 1, 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant compression of the Net Interest Margin (NIM) below 3.50% due to escalating deposit costs.
A sharp rise in nonperforming assets (NPAs) or net charge-offs exceeding historical averages.
Failure to retain key wealth management or insurance clients following recent acquisitions, leading to a material drop in non-interest fee income.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.