First Financial Bankshares Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $31.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.6B Enterprise Value $4B Shares Outstanding 143.7M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) is a highly efficient, well-capitalized regional banking franchise with a strong footprint in the growing Texas market. The bank boasts a best-in-class efficiency ratio (44.98% in Q1 2026) and robust capital levels (Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 20.23%). However, the stock historically trades at a significant premium to its regional banking peers (P/E of ~18x and P/B of ~2.4x), which limits near-term upside. While core operations remain strong with expanding net interest margins (3.86% in Q1 2026), intense deposit competition and potential regional economic headwinds warrant a cautious, neutral stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$37.00 High · most bullish analyst$39.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $35.0020% Intense competition for deposits forces funding costs higher, compressing the net interest margin. Simultaneously, a downturn in key Texas sectors (energy, agriculture) leads to credit quality deterioration, requiring higher provisions for credit losses and dragging down profitability, causing the valuation multiple to contract toward peer averages. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.0050% Matches the consensus meanFFIN maintains its stable core banking performance with moderate loan growth and disciplined expense management. The net interest margin remains stable near 3.80%-3.85%, and credit quality remains sound with nonperforming assets well below peer averages. The stock continues to trade at its historical premium, tracking overall market performance. Bull CaseUpside scenario $39.0030% Strong organic loan and deposit growth in high-growth Texas markets, combined with successful wealth management fee income expansion, drives positive operating leverage. Net interest margins expand further as loan yields reprice higher while deposit costs stabilize, allowing FFIN to justify and expand its premium valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |