First Commonwealth Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $20.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 102.6M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary First Commonwealth Financial Corp. (FCF) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a high-quality regional bank navigating a complex interest rate environment. Despite a modest Q1 2026 earnings miss driven by elevated credit provisions, the bank demonstrates robust deposit growth, a strong capital foundation, and a commitment to shareholder returns, highlighted by its 11th consecutive year of dividend increases. With its core focus on stable Pennsylvania and Ohio markets, FCF is well-positioned to benefit from gradual net interest margin expansion as deposit costs stabilize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.50 Mean target$24.08 High · most bullish analyst$25.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.5020% Persistent deposit competition and higher-for-longer interest rates squeeze net interest margins below 3.85%. Commercial credit quality deteriorates further, requiring elevated provisions for credit losses. Loan demand remains subdued, pressuring profitability and limiting capital return initiatives. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.0850% Matches the consensus meanNet interest margin improves gradually to end the year slightly above 4.00%. Loan growth remains modest due to elevated payoffs, but is offset by stable deposit growth. Credit quality remains manageable with nonperforming loans stabilizing around 1.00%, allowing the bank to continue its share buybacks and support its 3.0% dividend yield. Bull CaseUpside scenario $25.0030% Net interest margin expands rapidly toward 4.10% as deposit competition eases and loan yields adjust upward. Mid-single-digit loan growth is achieved through strong commercial and industrial lending, while credit costs normalize as isolated commercial credit issues are resolved. This drives significant operating leverage and earnings outperformance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |