First Bancorp Inc (ME) Dossier - Source-backed chat

First Bancorp Inc (ME)

FNLCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.67

Intrinsic Value $26.33median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $33.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $380.1M

Enterprise Value $385.8M

Shares Outstanding 11.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend7 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

First Bancorp, Inc. (ME) is demonstrating robust financial performance characterized by consecutive quarters of net interest margin expansion, strong loan growth, and superior efficiency metrics relative to regional peers. Operating in the stable coastal and eastern Maine markets, the bank leverages its deep-rooted community relationships to maintain a highly stable core deposit base, which has successfully funded its loan portfolio expansion and reduced reliance on high-cost wholesale funding. With a healthy dividend yield and consistent tangible book value growth, the company presents an attractive risk-reward profile for value and income-oriented investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$26.0010%

Margin compression triggered by aggressive deposit competition in the New England region or unexpected rate cuts that reprice assets faster than liabilities. Additionally, a localized economic slowdown in Maine could lead to rising non-performing assets in the commercial real estate or construction portfolios, increasing provision expenses and dragging ROAA below 0.90%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$32.0060%

Steady net interest margin stabilization around 2.85% to 2.90% with moderate loan growth of 5-8% annually. Core deposits remain flat to slightly up, maintaining a stable funding mix. The efficiency ratio consolidates in the 52.00% - 54.00% range, supporting a return on average tangible common equity of approximately 14.00%. Dividends continue to grow in line with historical trends, supported by a conservative payout ratio.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$35.0030%

Accelerated net interest margin expansion driven by continued asset repricing in a stable interest rate environment, coupled with stronger-than-expected loan demand in coastal Maine's real estate and commercial sectors. This scenario assumes continued core deposit growth, allowing the bank to completely phase out expensive wholesale funding, driving the efficiency ratio below 50.00% and ROAA above 1.25%.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Consistent Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion, marking seven consecutive quarters of improvement up to 2.86% in Q1 2026.
Strong balance sheet with tangible book value per share rising 11.1% year-over-year to $22.71 as of March 31, 2026.
Excellent asset quality with historically low non-performing assets and a conservative risk management framework.
Attractive dividend profile with a yield of approximately 4.92% and a sustainable payout ratio of 45.68%.

Key Investment Risks

Geographic concentration risk with operations entirely focused in coastal, central, and eastern Maine, making the bank highly sensitive to local economic conditions.
Deposit beta and funding cost pressures if regional competition for retail and commercial deposits intensifies.
Exposure to commercial real estate and construction lending, which are inherently more sensitive to macroeconomic downturns.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp contraction in Net Interest Margin (NIM) below 2.65% over two consecutive quarters.
A significant spike in non-performing loans, particularly within the commercial real estate or construction portfolios, pushing the NPA/Total Assets ratio above 0.50%.
A material decline in core deposits exceeding 5% in a single fiscal year, forcing reliance on high-cost wholesale funding.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.