Federal Realty Investment Trust Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Retail Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $96.62median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $108.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.4B Enterprise Value $14.3B Shares Outstanding 87.6M diluted Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Federal Realty entered the second half of 2026 with favorable operating momentum: second-quarter Core FFO per share rose 6.8%, adjusted comparable-property operating income increased 4.2%, comparable retail leases achieved 15% cash rent growth, and management raised its full-year Core FFO guidance. The 96.1% leased rate also provides a potential source of future rent commencement as the 2.3-percentage-point gap to 93.8% occupancy closes. These strengths are balanced by execution risk around that conversion, tenant and real-estate-cycle exposure, and continued reliance on debt and equity capital. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$118.00 Mean target$132.50 High · most bullish analyst$149.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $118.0018% Tenant failures or slower store openings prevent signed leases from converting into occupancy, cash rent growth weakens, and management reduces its Core FFO outlook. Higher capital requirements or refinancing costs could compound the operating shortfall despite the recent exchangeable-note financing. Base CaseCentral scenario $132.5058% Matches the consensus meanFederal Realty delivers within its $7.48-$7.56 2026 Core FFO guidance, occupancy remains near the June 2026 level while signed leases begin contributing rent, and leasing spreads moderate from the record quarter but remain positive. Bull CaseUpside scenario $149.0024% The leased-to-occupied gap converts efficiently, cash leasing spreads remain positive, and adjusted comparable-property income growth sustains Core FFO near or above the top of management's 2026 guidance. Continued access to long-dated capital and the 59-year dividend-growth record reinforce investor confidence. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |