Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $31.08median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $34.91Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $480.8M Shares Outstanding 13.7M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc. (FMAO) is a highly stable, well-managed community bank with a strong footprint in Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana. The bank has demonstrated robust profitability, marking 92 consecutive quarters of positive earnings as of Q1 2026. While its core agricultural and commercial lending expertise provides a solid competitive moat, near-term upside is constrained by its current valuation, which sits slightly above historical averages, and rising nonperforming loans. FMAO remains an attractive vehicle for income-focused investors due to its consistent dividend growth, but capital appreciation is likely limited at current price levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$36.00 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0015% Persistent high interest rates lead to severe deposit competition, compressing NIM. Simultaneously, concentration in commercial real estate (CRE) loans (currently at 49% of the portfolio) and agricultural exposures results in higher-than-expected charge-offs. Nonperforming loans rise significantly, forcing aggressive provisioning that severely dampens net income. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.5060% FMAO maintains stable core operations with modest loan and deposit growth. NIM remains relatively stable around 3.35% to 3.45% as loan repricing offsets competitive deposit pricing pressures. Credit quality remains manageable despite a slight uptick in nonperforming loans, and the bank continues its long-term track record of consecutive annual dividend increases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $32.0025% The bank successfully executes its new three-year strategic plan, driving low-to-mid-single-digit organic balance sheet growth. Fixed-rate loan repricing tailwinds accelerate net interest margin (NIM) expansion beyond expectations, while agricultural and commercial loan demand in its core markets remains highly resilient. Operational efficiencies push the efficiency ratio below 58%, leading to record earnings per share. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |