Fair Isaac Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Fair Isaac Corp

FICONYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)1.21

Intrinsic Value $1,663.21median of 5 methods · middle span $1,525-$4,323based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $661.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 151% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+151%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $14.3B

Shares Outstanding 23.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Mar 2017

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

FICO entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong Scores momentum, rapid FICO Platform expansion and raised full-year guidance. The principal offsets are the reliance of recent B2B Scores growth on higher mortgage-origination score unit pricing, continued contraction in non-platform software and regulatory, competitive and data-security exposure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$707.00

Mean target$1,476.32

High · most bullish analyst$1,750.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$707.0024%

Mortgage activity or pricing benefits normalize faster than expected, reducing B2B Scores growth, while non-platform ARR contraction persists and platform growth slows. Regulatory changes affecting credit data or scoring, customer losses, competition or a material data-security event would compound the operating slowdown.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,476.3256%

Matches the consensus mean

FICO broadly delivers its updated fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $2.53 billion. Scores growth moderates from the pricing-led third-quarter pace, while platform expansion offsets much, but not necessarily all, of the weakness in non-platform software.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,750.0020%

Scores growth remains elevated as mortgage pricing proves durable, while 62% platform ARR growth and 148% platform net retention translate into a larger recurring software contribution. Results exceed the updated fiscal 2026 guidance and demonstrate that platform expansion can more than offset legacy-product contraction.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Third-quarter fiscal 2026 Scores revenue increased 41% year over year to $458.9 million, with B2B Scores revenue up 49%.
Platform ARR increased 62% year over year and platform dollar-based net retention reached 148%, indicating strong expansion within the strategic software offering.
Management raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance from $2.45 billion to $2.53 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance from $40.45 to $42.43.

Key Investment Risks

The company attributed the 49% increase in B2B Scores revenue primarily to a higher mortgage-origination score unit price, creating sensitivity to mortgage activity, customer response and future pricing conditions.
Non-platform ARR declined 17% and non-platform dollar-based net retention was 82%, showing meaningful contraction in legacy software products.
FICO identifies competition, regulatory changes involving consumer credit and data, data-protection failures, customer and distributor relationships, product development and macroeconomic conditions as factors that could adversely affect results.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.