F.N.B. Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

F.N.B. Corp

FNBNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)0.90

Intrinsic Value $14.95median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $17.24Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $6.1B

Enterprise Value $5.8B

Shares Outstanding 358.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date19 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) represents a highly resilient regional banking franchise with peer-leading capital ratios, disciplined underwriting, and a robust credit profile. Despite near-term revenue headwinds and sequential net interest margin (NIM) compression, FNB's conservative lending approach (focusing on middle-market corporate lending and granular CRE exposures) protects it from systemic credit shocks. Furthermore, its strong capital position (11.4% CET1) provides ample flexibility to support organic balance sheet growth and execute shareholder-friendly capital returns through its newly authorized $250 million stock repurchase program.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$19.00

Mean target$21.06

High · most bullish analyst$22.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Base CaseCentral scenario

$21.06

Matches the consensus mean

FNB maintains stable mid-single-digit balance sheet growth with credit quality remaining highly solid (NPLs well-controlled). NIM stabilizes around 3.20%-3.25% as fixed-rate asset reinvestment offsets deposit pricing pressures. Capital returns continue via steady dividends and moderate share buybacks under the $250 million authorization. The stock is valued at a 12x P/E multiple on 2026 EPS estimates of $1.70.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Stellar credit quality with conservative underwriting and diverse, granular loan exposure (average CRE loan size of $1 million).
Peer-leading capital position with an 11.4% CET1 ratio and 8.9% TCE/TA ratio, providing strong downside protection.
Robust capital return profile supported by a secure dividend yield and a newly authorized $250 million share repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

Sequential net interest margin (NIM) compression due to persistent deposit competition and shifting interest rate dynamics.
Potential revenue growth stagnation if loan demand slows down in its core mid-Atlantic footprint.
Rising non-interest expenses driven by ongoing technology investments and elevated fraud losses.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp spike in net charge-offs (NCOs) or nonperforming loans indicating systemic underwriting failures.
NIM compression accelerating below 3.10% due to severe deposit outflows or aggressive pricing competition.
Regulatory changes that significantly increase capital requirements or restrict capital return programs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.